This year I will be playing in an AL-only league in which "Holds" will be one of the scoring columns, and I'm having a lot of trouble making projections in this category. What would be your suggestion for handling this problem?

Patrick Davitt
Having 'holds' as a category is an excellent idea. It reduces the upwards price pressure on closers. I will leave the sabermetric analyses to others insofar as individual stats go, but as an instinctive matter, it seems like the best indicator of future holds would be past holds, if the pitcher and manager haven't changed. Holds are a very situational stat, and managers are creatures of habit (or lack of imagination, as many say). Find a few pitchers who garnered holds in past years, and they will likely get their share this coming year.

Doug Dennis
For holds, you want the #1 RH and #1 LH set-up guys who will get a lot of appearances in games where their team has the lead, but won't get that last out in the ninth inning. These guys are the same guys who get lots of "vulture" wins, by being the guys who will get a lot of appearances in games where their team is slightly behind. As for skills, look for relievers who have a high number of appearances, a high projected skills sets, and play for a team that is likely to be ahead more often than not after a starter is pulled. In the Baseball Forecaster, look at the list of relief pitchers by projected BPV in the back of the book, draw a line through the closers and pitchers who will log fewer than 40 innings, and you will have a decent list of "holds candidates."

Mike Marcucci
The most important "skill" in looking for holds is probably appearances. Holds do not differentiate between a pitcher who faces one batter and another who faces 12. Stats such as command (K/BB) and dominance (K/IP), which make a reliever valuable, may not necessarily make him a good holder. Still, looking at a pitcher's skill set is an insight into his likely effectiveness. The more effective he is, the more he will be used. Target relievers on good teams without strong starting rotations -- good starting pitchers with more innings lead to fewer relief appearances per game. Look for managers who prefer matchups instead of leaving in one effective pitcher for 2 innings or more.

John Burnson
Observations from 1999:
(1) Forty percent of the top holders -- 12 of 30 -- were lefties, sharply more than their general proportion of about 25%. Each of the teams over .500 had at least one top-30 lefty (Cleveland and Texas had two). Although lefties rack up only 15% of total saves, they are essential countermeasures with narrow leads.
(2) Two-thirds of the top 30 had homer rates under 1.0. An occasional (or more-than-occasional) baserunner can be handled by the next bullpen specialist; the most important trait for a holder seems to be simply not giving up the long ball.
(3) Eight of the top 10 holders were on teams over .500. All these teams had at least one other top-30 holder, and all but one of these teams had 45+ saves. The best holders still need back-up.
So my ideal holds candidate would be ... a lefty with a sub-1.0 HR/9 on a winning team with an impeccable closer.

Ray Murphy
In general, the "Rule of TOG" applies: just as with saves, a reliever will have to show talent to get opportunities from their manager, and guile to convert them. Stick to skills gauges to assess talent, and keep in mind the following when assessing the pool of relievers with sufficient base performance levels:

1. Since a hold can't be credited in a loss, it is advisable to shop for your middle relievers among the better teams.

2. You will also want to focus on teams with solid closers. You will find it highly annoying to watch your middle man hand the ball to his closer, and then have him blow the game, depriving you of the hold.

3. While LHPs are not generally a good place to shop for saves, they can be an excellent source of holds. Those 1-2 batter appearances by LH specialists can often lead to cheap holds, and their brief appearances will (hopefully) minimize their chances of taking a 5 earned run bombing that can damage your ERA.

4. Teams with starters that rarely reach the 7th or 8th inning are more attractive. If it is rare for a starter to hand the ball right to a closer, there will be more opportunities for the middle men on that staff.

5. Look at a RP's number of appearances. The rubber-armed types will naturally be exposed to more opportunities. Be careful, though... more work means more potential for damage to your ERA and WHIP.

6. Try to stick to pitchers with strong command (K/BB greater than 2.0). Nothing will put a reliever into a manager's doghouse faster than a tendency to enter the game and start issuing walks. Once out of favor with the manager, hold opportunities will quickly dry up.